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Friday, 7 September 2007

SOCIETY - fresh ideas...

The end approaches for the 3000 mile ceasar salad

Go local. That’s the suggestion of NSW North Coast community educator, Tim Winton, for coping with the approaching Peak Oil crisis.

‘Peak Oil’ describes the reaching of a peak in global oil production. After that an inevitable decline kicks in, with increasing scarcity and rapidly rising prices. Far from being the idea of doomsayers, economists and the petroleum industry are taking it seriously. The basic underpinning of industrial economies may be about to disappear.

“Decline will follow the peaking of oil extraction”, warns Tim. “Economists say we have 30, perhaps 40 years before the supply reaches its peak but others put the time as much less, some as little as five years. I believe the economists are a little over-optimistic. Whatever the figure, it leaves precious little time to develop alternative sources. The International Energy Agency says it will take around 30 years lead time to scale up alternative energy sources to avoid economic dislocation”.

Peak oil seems to have come out of nowhere. According to Tim, oil interests did not want to scare investors and so have given the concept little publicity. But some do see what is coming, he says. “It is interesting that BP - British Petroleum – changed its name to ‘Beyond Petroleum’ and that Shell is also looking beyond the petroleum age”.

Potentially worsening the decline in supply is the likelihood that, soon, we may be asked to share a declining oil resource with millions more people in China and, still to come, India. Assuming no alternative energy source comparable with oil is found, the impact will likely be the acceleration of price rises and a more rapid shrinkage of remaining reserves.

A reduction of supply (however long it takes) that follows the peaking of supply will push up prices of most goods, including food.

Prospect for alternatives uncertain

A decline in the supply of oil has stimulated the search for alternatives to replace it. The fact that the market usually materialises substitute products for those that go into shortfall has become almost an article of faith for free-marketeers – it was put forcefully by the late US academic economist, Julian Simon. The belief, though, has more to do with faith than with science - we must not assume because something usually happens that it will continue to do so.

Biodiesel

Biodiesel is produced in the town of Nowra an sold in Sydney service stations. At present, it is the fuel of choice only of early adopters, however for the initial phase of any post-Peal Oil shortfall, biodiesel may become the fuel that moves the nation. What holds it back is the lack of an Australian standard governing its production.

Hybrid vehicles - extending a limited fuel supply

Then there are the fuel-efficient, hybrid drive vehicles such as those manufactured by Toyota, although there are lifecycle and waste management questions yet to be answered with this technology.

The hydrogen economy

Others say the ‘hydrogen economy’ will save the day.

If hydrogen energy proves economically and technically viable, that will be good news given our reliance on the long-distance road transport of goods and the lack of public transport in some urban regions.

Hydrogen looks promising as a transport fuel, but we must be careful not to assume that it is the only answer and stop funding research into other sources of energy.

As for finding a substitute transport fuel in time, hydrogen-powered vehicles using fuel cells already exist as prototypes but the fuel cell is still some years from mass adoption.

Renewables not a new solution

Renewables would form part of any future mix of energy sources.

Commercial wind energy is already generated in south-eastern Australia but, like other renewables, it is of no use as an alternative transport fuel. Similarly, other point sources that are geography-dependent and have to be sited where wind, tides and sunlight are most plentiful and constant. It might be possible, however, to substitute renewables for some non-transportation applications presently served by oil-based energy.

“I expect a big push by the nuclear industry as Peak Oil sets in”, says Tim, though that may be more pronounced in countries without the coal reserves of Australia. Already, China is interested in sourcing uranium here. In the West, proposals for new nuclear stations are likely to come up against the NIMBY syndrome even among people who otherwise support its development.

Oil, innovation and the 3000 mile ceasar salad

When Tim Winton addressed a seminar on Peak Oil at the Byron Bay Community Centre this year, so many turned up that people had to sit on the floor. Others spilled out of the doors. This level of interest surprised Tim and indicates that, in this part of the world at least, Peak Oil is something that is starting to capture the public imagination. The audience had come to hear about the potential impact on the region and what they could do about it. Tim proposed that localism might offer some solutions.

“The economy will not grow if the energy supple does not,” Tim told the audience.

“Yet, this can be seen as an opportunity. The Northern Rivers could become a world leader in what to do in a situation of scarcity and there are things we can do both personally and as a region.

"On the personal level, avoid debt. On the community level, invest in the regional economy. Reduce car-dependence and adopt pedestrian-friendly urban planning. Develop local sources of energy such as biofuels, solar and wind. Adopt energy conservation.

"We need to educate and make people more aware of the situation. Importantly, we need to work out how to do more through good design”.

The challenge of Peak Oil would be expected to generate a climate of doom and gloom, however this is not what is happening. There is optimism that the Northern Rivers region could become a leader in a Peak Oil future.

Byron could lead the way

“Byron Bay has the climate for doing things sustainably and for leading Australia”, claims Sarah West, a Lennox Head environmental scientist who works with local town planner, Geolink, and who previously worked with Sydney Water.

“Prices will go up as supply declines - and that includes water, goods, fuel and food. You might know that much of our food is transported great distances – this is the scenario of the ‘3000 mile Ceasar salad’. We can do much by deciding to buy local foods and locally-produced goods. We need to decentralise”.

Byron Bay's popular Green’s Mayor, Jan Barham, agrees and encourages residents to feel motivated rather than discouraged.

“We live here because we are a bit smarter than the rest”, she says with an air of mock smugness, “ …and we stand up for what is right. There’s enough of us here to make a difference. You’re only going to show the world what’s possible when you have a bold community. Let’s stay positive”.

Barham disagrees with avoiding conventional politics in the search for solutions: “Politics – it’s the only way I know to get things done in a reasonable time”.

A regional future?

Supporting and investing in regional economies by buying local is not a new proposal - it has been encouraged by business in areas of declining local economies and by advocates promoting the partial-decoupling from the global economy to preserve local jobs and the viability of towns.

What is new is proposing localism as a means of reducing oil consumption. Localism as an economic and cultural solution has been explored by commentators such as Michael Shuman, attorney and director of the US Institute for Policy Studies who wrote Going Local – creating self-reliant communities in a global age (1998; Simon & Shuster, NY).

The Northern Rivers is a growth area that attracts seachangers and downshifters, people who are part of a well-educated and affluent demographic. Despite the potential for innovation coming from these human resources, localism can do only so much to reduce reliance on high-priced oil. There might be potential for the region’s farmers to grow crops for the manufacture of biofuels such as biodiesel, however the economics of processing within the region – and whether sufficient raw material could be produced here - has never been assessed.

The North Coast cannot avoid the negative impacts that could come with Peak Oil, however a new localism might reduce them to some extent. To what degree that is possible will depend upon the availability of local finance and initiative.

Any Peak Oil coping strategy will have to motivate the region’s innovative citizens and its social and economic entrepreneurs. Motivated by rising transport, goods, food and petrol prices, even the region’s environmentalists might look beyond trees and forests at the very infrastructure that supports the way they live.